I think I could, if I only knew how to begin
The simulation argument purports to show, given some plausible assumptions, that at least one of three propositions is true.
Roughly stated, these propositions are: (1) almost all civilizations at our current level of development go extinct before reaching technological maturity; (2) there is a strong convergence among technologically mature civilizations such that almost all of them lose interest in creating ancestor‐simulations; (3) almost all people with our sorts of experiences live in computer simulations.
I also argue (#) that conditional on (3) you should assign a very high credence to the proposition that you live in a computer simulation. However, pace Brueckner, I do not argue that we should believe that we are in simulation.
In fact, I believe that we are probably not simulated. The simulation argument purports to show only that, as well as (#), at least one of (1) ‐ (3) is true; but it does not tell us which one.
{ Nick Bostrom, The simulation argument: Some Explanations, 2008 | Continue reading | PDF }
photo { Santiago Mostyn }
